We did have a wet winter back in '93. Nearly 4 inches in December followed by nearly 5 inches in January. That's just at the Tucson Airport though - it could have been higher in other locations.
When I referenced the 1983/1996 flows I was mainly referring to the Rillito.
Hello Carl, we have a new radar system called "Dual-Pol" which allows us to better identify what is inside the thunderstorm. So if we have more confidence that their is hail in the storm, we may issue a severe thunderstorm warning. Or, if we see heavier rain in the storm, we may issue a Flash Flood Warning sooner than in the past.
We have time for just a few more questions. Get yours in now!
To forecast thunderstorms, we rely on hi resolution models like the one the University of Arizona produces. This model does a pretty good job of showing where thunderstorms may form several hours (if not 2 days) in advance.
These hi resolution models also do a good job in showing where strong outflow winds may develop that can produce haboobs.
Yeah, because the radar can better differentiate between rain and hail, it can give us better rainfall estimates. Of course we always use real rain gauge reports too!
We want to thank any of you who are Skywarn Spotters and report severe weather to us. If you are not one, but are interested, we will begin training again next spring.
KW - Mainly for simplicity sake. Also because the old definition of having an average dew point of 54 degrees for 3 days in a row was measured in Phoenix. We typically experience the moisture before Phoenix so we would have thunderstorms forming technically before the Monsoon began. This seemed confusing.
May Day - yes. There is always a chance :). In fact, the forecast models are currently showing a tropical system developing in the Pacific for later this week. But we really don't know if it will reach the U.S. or not.
I think the official prediction is for a "normal" number of E Pacific Storms, May Day.
Thank you all for your great questions today! I have to get back to the forecast. Take care and be safe this monsoon!
Thank you all for the questions. We really enjoyed this chat session!
As Kori mentioned, please find us on Facebook and Twitter and stay safe this Monsoon :).
Thanks so much to J.J. Brost and Ken Drozd from the National Weather Service, Tucson Weather Forecast Office for participating in today's chat. And, thanks to all you for the great questions!
Remember, you can find the NWS Tucson office on facebook under the name "US National Weather Service Tucson Arizona," and @NWSTucson on twitter.
Chat with you all again next week about the monsoon! Thanks again, J.J. and Ken!